As January has come, the number ofpeople looking at houses have increased! I think there is more hop out there and the weather has helped.
I was in Tacoma this weekend and looked out the window of the hotel room we were in and took in the beautiful view. The sun was coming up all pink around a stunning view of Mt Ranier. It reminds me why we live in the PNW. The sight made you feel wonderful. I hope everyone else felt the same way!
Monday, January 25, 2010
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
5 Markets Expected to Fare Best in 2010
Lisa Scherzer, SmartMoney.com
Jan 8th, 2010
After a dour year where housing prices fell more than 12% nationwide, will 2010 bring sunnier tidings?
The short answer: only a tad in a select few places but overall not really.
The five areas that Moody's foresees home prices performing best in 2010 are: Tacoma, Wash., (an increase of 2.44%); Memphis, Tenn., (up 0.99%); Pittsburgh (up 0.89%); Charleston, S.C. (up 0.18%); and Seattle (decline of 0.50%). (These five markets are culled from data on Moody's Economy.com and based on the largest 100 metro areas.)
Yes, there have been pieces of good news over the past few months that have indicated a quiet, slow bottoming of real estate prices. For instance, sales of existing homes rose 7.4% in November from the previous month, the highest rate since February 2007, according to data from the National Association of Realtors released last week. The tax incentives for home buyers passed earlier this year along with historically low interest rates have no doubt nudged many buyers into the market.
Yet a recovery depends on several factors. At the top of the list is a turnaround in the labor market. More people going back to work will have a beneficial effect on household income and consumer confidence and would stabilize the housing market, says Stuart Gabriel, director of UCLA's Ziman Center for Real Estate. As of November, one of out every 10 American workers is unemployed, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And while that's down slightly from October, Moody's expects the jobless rate to peak in the third quarter next year at 10.6%.
Another factor is the backlog in foreclosures, which are dragging down values and adding to the housing supply. "By all accounts, that backlog is at a historic high," says Gabriel. "It suggests that many more homes will be sold on a distressed basis either via foreclosure or short sale."
RealtyTrac, an online marketplace of foreclosure listings, estimates 3.2 million households will have received a foreclosure notice in 2009, up from 2.3 million in 2008. The firm projects that number could approach four million in 2010. "We do think 2010 will probably represent the peak, and in 2011 [foreclosures] will start to go down at least marginally," says Rick Sharga, senior vice president at RealtyTrac. Why the acceleration next year? First, says Sharga, there have been enormous delays in processing this year. Many homes that would have gone into foreclosure in 2009 won't actually enter and complete the process until 2010.
Second, a big wave of option adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) will reset next year. (These are a somewhat obscure category of ARMs that were popular during the real estate boom, which allowed borrowers to make a range of monthly payments. The options include a partial-interest payment that adds the unpaid interest to the loan's balance. On many of the loans, balances have risen while values of the underlying properties have plummeted.) "The number of loans that will adjust starts to go up significantly in the middle of next year. A lot of those loans are underwater...and owners will be really hard-pressed to avoid going into foreclosure," Sharga says.
Home prices, of course, are variable and depend on many factors, each of which are difficult to predict. Still, average home prices will drop by 7.9% nationwide in 2010, according to Moody's Economy.com. In the few areas where there could be positive price growth, the projected increase is modest. "These areas will essentially be flat next year," says Steve Cochrane, managing director at Moody's Economy.com.
These pockets of the country share a few important characteristics. One is that they are starting with a limited supply of housing stock. Another is that throughout most of the decade, prices basically stayed in synch with household income, says Cochrane.
There are other factors, too. Pittsburgh, for example, along with western Pennsylvania, is late in the traditional business cycle, and "our variations tend to be smaller," says Robert Strauss, a professor of economics and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. The economy has managed to stay fairly stable mostly because over the past several decades it transformed from a center of manufacturing to one of education and health care with a bit of financial services and technology.
Smaller areas across the Southeast are expected to fare well in 2010 primarily because they fared relatively decently during the housing crisis, says Jeannine Cataldi, a senior economist at IHS Global Insight. "They didn't have such a big run-up, and they have a diverse economic base that enabled them to stay stable," she says. Home prices in Charleston didn't get out of line with household incomes; also, Boeing (BA: 61.60, -0.60, -0.96%) is investing in a fairly large manufacturing plant there, which could create some potential for income and job growth, says Cochrane.
As for Memphis, the city's largest employer is FedEx (FDX: 84.99, +2.06, +2.48%). Transportation services is one of the early industries to turn around as the economy recovers, says Cochrane, and that should support the area's housing market.
The economies of Tacoma and Seattle - which are neighboring cities - were "much stronger for much longer than much of the rest of the country," says Cochrane. Software giant Microsoft, based in Redmond, Wash., a Seattle suburb, was one reason the area remained stable. Another was Boeing, which builds its commercial airplanes in Seattle.
Going forward, Seattle's position as a key hub of trans-Pacific trade should be a plus for the economy. Orders are increasing for commercial aircraft and it should see some rising demand for tech products, Cochrane says. The outlook for 2010 for the two Washington cities "is for fairly stable, moderate economic growth," he says.
Lisa Scherzer, SmartMoney.com
Jan 8th, 2010
After a dour year where housing prices fell more than 12% nationwide, will 2010 bring sunnier tidings?
The short answer: only a tad in a select few places but overall not really.
The five areas that Moody's foresees home prices performing best in 2010 are: Tacoma, Wash., (an increase of 2.44%); Memphis, Tenn., (up 0.99%); Pittsburgh (up 0.89%); Charleston, S.C. (up 0.18%); and Seattle (decline of 0.50%). (These five markets are culled from data on Moody's Economy.com and based on the largest 100 metro areas.)
Yes, there have been pieces of good news over the past few months that have indicated a quiet, slow bottoming of real estate prices. For instance, sales of existing homes rose 7.4% in November from the previous month, the highest rate since February 2007, according to data from the National Association of Realtors released last week. The tax incentives for home buyers passed earlier this year along with historically low interest rates have no doubt nudged many buyers into the market.
Yet a recovery depends on several factors. At the top of the list is a turnaround in the labor market. More people going back to work will have a beneficial effect on household income and consumer confidence and would stabilize the housing market, says Stuart Gabriel, director of UCLA's Ziman Center for Real Estate. As of November, one of out every 10 American workers is unemployed, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And while that's down slightly from October, Moody's expects the jobless rate to peak in the third quarter next year at 10.6%.
Another factor is the backlog in foreclosures, which are dragging down values and adding to the housing supply. "By all accounts, that backlog is at a historic high," says Gabriel. "It suggests that many more homes will be sold on a distressed basis either via foreclosure or short sale."
RealtyTrac, an online marketplace of foreclosure listings, estimates 3.2 million households will have received a foreclosure notice in 2009, up from 2.3 million in 2008. The firm projects that number could approach four million in 2010. "We do think 2010 will probably represent the peak, and in 2011 [foreclosures] will start to go down at least marginally," says Rick Sharga, senior vice president at RealtyTrac. Why the acceleration next year? First, says Sharga, there have been enormous delays in processing this year. Many homes that would have gone into foreclosure in 2009 won't actually enter and complete the process until 2010.
Second, a big wave of option adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) will reset next year. (These are a somewhat obscure category of ARMs that were popular during the real estate boom, which allowed borrowers to make a range of monthly payments. The options include a partial-interest payment that adds the unpaid interest to the loan's balance. On many of the loans, balances have risen while values of the underlying properties have plummeted.) "The number of loans that will adjust starts to go up significantly in the middle of next year. A lot of those loans are underwater...and owners will be really hard-pressed to avoid going into foreclosure," Sharga says.
Home prices, of course, are variable and depend on many factors, each of which are difficult to predict. Still, average home prices will drop by 7.9% nationwide in 2010, according to Moody's Economy.com. In the few areas where there could be positive price growth, the projected increase is modest. "These areas will essentially be flat next year," says Steve Cochrane, managing director at Moody's Economy.com.
These pockets of the country share a few important characteristics. One is that they are starting with a limited supply of housing stock. Another is that throughout most of the decade, prices basically stayed in synch with household income, says Cochrane.
There are other factors, too. Pittsburgh, for example, along with western Pennsylvania, is late in the traditional business cycle, and "our variations tend to be smaller," says Robert Strauss, a professor of economics and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. The economy has managed to stay fairly stable mostly because over the past several decades it transformed from a center of manufacturing to one of education and health care with a bit of financial services and technology.
Smaller areas across the Southeast are expected to fare well in 2010 primarily because they fared relatively decently during the housing crisis, says Jeannine Cataldi, a senior economist at IHS Global Insight. "They didn't have such a big run-up, and they have a diverse economic base that enabled them to stay stable," she says. Home prices in Charleston didn't get out of line with household incomes; also, Boeing (BA: 61.60, -0.60, -0.96%) is investing in a fairly large manufacturing plant there, which could create some potential for income and job growth, says Cochrane.
As for Memphis, the city's largest employer is FedEx (FDX: 84.99, +2.06, +2.48%). Transportation services is one of the early industries to turn around as the economy recovers, says Cochrane, and that should support the area's housing market.
The economies of Tacoma and Seattle - which are neighboring cities - were "much stronger for much longer than much of the rest of the country," says Cochrane. Software giant Microsoft, based in Redmond, Wash., a Seattle suburb, was one reason the area remained stable. Another was Boeing, which builds its commercial airplanes in Seattle.
Going forward, Seattle's position as a key hub of trans-Pacific trade should be a plus for the economy. Orders are increasing for commercial aircraft and it should see some rising demand for tech products, Cochrane says. The outlook for 2010 for the two Washington cities "is for fairly stable, moderate economic growth," he says.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Home sales on King County's Eastside lead December activity
The median price of a house sold in King County last month was $380,000, down 5.8 percent from December 2008 — the last month the median topped $400,000.
By Eric Pryne
Seattle Times business reporter
Houses are selling way ahead of 2008's dreary pace all over King County.
And nowhere have sales increased more lately than on the Eastside, the county's most expensive area.
Consider these December numbers, released Tuesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service:
• Countywide, closed sales of single-family homes rose a healthy 57 percent from December 2008. On the Eastside, the bump was even bigger: 78 percent.
• Pending sales — accepted offers that haven't yet closed — rose 55 percent countywide, 81 percent on the Eastside.
• Closed sales more than doubled year over year in five of the 29 areas into which the listing service divides King County. Three were on the Eastside: Kirkland, Redmond and West Bellevue/Medina.
The Eastside's surge actually began in the fall, after a summer in which sales there stayed relatively flat compared with 2008 while sales began climbing in more affordable South King County and Seattle.
So what's happening east of Lake Washington? Real-estate professionals offer an assortment of possible explanations: increasingly flexible — or desperate — sellers. The continuing impact of federal tax credits. The improving stock market. Not to mention favorable interest rates.
'Sky not falling'
"Our buyers are realizing the sky is not falling," said Peter Hickey, owner-broker of Windermere Real Estate's Kirkland office.
While King County house sales in December exceeded the previous year's number for the seventh straight month, prices continued to drift. The median price of a single-family home that sold in December was $380,000, down 5.8 percent from December 2008 when it last topped $400,000.
During 2009 the monthly median fluctuated between $363,850 and $395,000, with no clear trend up or down. Median means half the homes sold for more, half sold for less.
But prices did rise year-over-year in December in a few scattered neighborhoods: Woodinville, Shoreline, Southeast Seattle, parts of Renton.
Across the Sound, in Kitsap County, the median price increased 8 percent.
In Snohomish County, the median house price fell nearly 10 percent year over year in December, to $287,000. But buyers also closed on nearly twice as many houses.
Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University, said he was "pleasantly surprised" by the December sales volumes throughout Western Washington.
He had anticipated a bigger drop from November, when many first-time buyers rushed to close to meet a deadline — later extended — to qualify for an $8,000 federal tax credit. In King County, the month-to-month decline was just 7 percent.
As for the strong sales on the Eastside, Crellin speculated they may be fueled in part by sellers with mounting financial troubles who now are willing to accept lower prices than a few months ago.
"I suspect there is some bargain-hunting going on in those neighborhoods," Crellin said of Kirkland and Redmond.
Hickey, the Windermere broker, said some high-end new homes on the Eastside that have languished on the market for up to two years now are receiving multiple offers.
Price cuts helped, he acknowledged: "We have motivated sellers who have come to grips with the fact that their houses are not worth 2006 prices anymore."
Sales may be increasing faster on the Eastside now than in South King County, the county's most affordable area, because buyers are willing to pay more to be closer to work, Hickey said.
Gerhard Ade, an agent in Coldwell Banker Bain's Kirkland office, said the Eastside continues to attract newcomers to the region who come to work for Boeing, Microsoft and Amazon.com.
The Eastside also may be attracting "trickle-up" buyers who have sold their houses elsewhere in the region to first-time buyers and are looking to relocate, he said.
But Mona Spencer, broker at John L. Scott's Redmond office, said first-time buyers remained a big part of the Eastside market in December, despite the extension of the federal tax credit to June 30. Most of the sales that her office closed last month were for less than $500,000 — starter homes on the Eastside, she said.
"I had two mutually accepted deals on Christmas Day, both to first-time buyers," Spencer said. "I'm seeing more activity. Our sales are up."
Buyers of more expensive homes have the most to gain by taking advantage of the lowest mortgage rates in the last 50 years. In December, the national average mortgage rate on 30-year fixed loans for less than $417,000 was below 5 percent, according to bankrate.com. Rates for loans for larger amounts hovered between 6 and 8 percent.
The median price of a house sold in King County last month was $380,000, down 5.8 percent from December 2008 — the last month the median topped $400,000.
By Eric Pryne
Seattle Times business reporter
Houses are selling way ahead of 2008's dreary pace all over King County.
And nowhere have sales increased more lately than on the Eastside, the county's most expensive area.
Consider these December numbers, released Tuesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service:
• Countywide, closed sales of single-family homes rose a healthy 57 percent from December 2008. On the Eastside, the bump was even bigger: 78 percent.
• Pending sales — accepted offers that haven't yet closed — rose 55 percent countywide, 81 percent on the Eastside.
• Closed sales more than doubled year over year in five of the 29 areas into which the listing service divides King County. Three were on the Eastside: Kirkland, Redmond and West Bellevue/Medina.
The Eastside's surge actually began in the fall, after a summer in which sales there stayed relatively flat compared with 2008 while sales began climbing in more affordable South King County and Seattle.
So what's happening east of Lake Washington? Real-estate professionals offer an assortment of possible explanations: increasingly flexible — or desperate — sellers. The continuing impact of federal tax credits. The improving stock market. Not to mention favorable interest rates.
'Sky not falling'
"Our buyers are realizing the sky is not falling," said Peter Hickey, owner-broker of Windermere Real Estate's Kirkland office.
While King County house sales in December exceeded the previous year's number for the seventh straight month, prices continued to drift. The median price of a single-family home that sold in December was $380,000, down 5.8 percent from December 2008 when it last topped $400,000.
During 2009 the monthly median fluctuated between $363,850 and $395,000, with no clear trend up or down. Median means half the homes sold for more, half sold for less.
But prices did rise year-over-year in December in a few scattered neighborhoods: Woodinville, Shoreline, Southeast Seattle, parts of Renton.
Across the Sound, in Kitsap County, the median price increased 8 percent.
In Snohomish County, the median house price fell nearly 10 percent year over year in December, to $287,000. But buyers also closed on nearly twice as many houses.
Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University, said he was "pleasantly surprised" by the December sales volumes throughout Western Washington.
He had anticipated a bigger drop from November, when many first-time buyers rushed to close to meet a deadline — later extended — to qualify for an $8,000 federal tax credit. In King County, the month-to-month decline was just 7 percent.
As for the strong sales on the Eastside, Crellin speculated they may be fueled in part by sellers with mounting financial troubles who now are willing to accept lower prices than a few months ago.
"I suspect there is some bargain-hunting going on in those neighborhoods," Crellin said of Kirkland and Redmond.
Hickey, the Windermere broker, said some high-end new homes on the Eastside that have languished on the market for up to two years now are receiving multiple offers.
Price cuts helped, he acknowledged: "We have motivated sellers who have come to grips with the fact that their houses are not worth 2006 prices anymore."
Sales may be increasing faster on the Eastside now than in South King County, the county's most affordable area, because buyers are willing to pay more to be closer to work, Hickey said.
Gerhard Ade, an agent in Coldwell Banker Bain's Kirkland office, said the Eastside continues to attract newcomers to the region who come to work for Boeing, Microsoft and Amazon.com.
The Eastside also may be attracting "trickle-up" buyers who have sold their houses elsewhere in the region to first-time buyers and are looking to relocate, he said.
But Mona Spencer, broker at John L. Scott's Redmond office, said first-time buyers remained a big part of the Eastside market in December, despite the extension of the federal tax credit to June 30. Most of the sales that her office closed last month were for less than $500,000 — starter homes on the Eastside, she said.
"I had two mutually accepted deals on Christmas Day, both to first-time buyers," Spencer said. "I'm seeing more activity. Our sales are up."
Buyers of more expensive homes have the most to gain by taking advantage of the lowest mortgage rates in the last 50 years. In December, the national average mortgage rate on 30-year fixed loans for less than $417,000 was below 5 percent, according to bankrate.com. Rates for loans for larger amounts hovered between 6 and 8 percent.
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